Artificial Neural Network Model for Estimating the Poor Population in Indonesia as an Effort to Alleviate Poverty

Abstract

Forecasting the poverty rate in Indonesia is one of the activities that is considered to be able to help various parties, such as being able to help the government in planning more effective and efficient poverty alleviation programs. In this study, forecasting the poverty rate in Indonesia was carried out using the backpropagation artificial neural network method. The purpose of this research is to model and predict the poverty rate using the backpropagation artificial neural network model, and to determine the accuracy of the forecasting results produced by this method. This research is an applied researc. The data used is annual data on proverty in Indonesia from 2917-2021. The data is then divided into two parts, namely training data and test data. The results show that the best artificial network model is BP (7,7,2) with 7 neurons in the input layer, 7 neurons in the hidden layer, and 2 neurons in the output layer. The accuracy of this model is good with a MAPE value of 0.07633%. The forecasting results in the next period show that the highest number of poor people is East Java province with a value of 3604.1698 thousand people in the first semester (March) of 2022 and has increased in the second semester period (September) of 2022 with a value of 3698.822 thousand people