Modeling Open Unemployment Rate in West Sumatera Province Using Truncated Spline Regression

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) is an indicator used to measure the unemployment rate in the labor force which shows the percentage of the number of job seekers to the total workforce. In 2020 West Sumatra Province occupies the eighth position as the largest contributor to unemployment in Indonesia, this is a problem for the West Sumatra Provincial government. To deal with the unemployment problem, it is necessary to analyze the factors that are thought to affect the open unemployment rate in West Sumatra Province using truncated spline regression on the grounds that the data pattern between the response variables and each predictor variable does not form any pattern. Several factors are thought to influence the open unemployment rate, namely population, labor force participation rate, average length of schooling, dependency ratio. Based on the results of the analysis, the best model for modeling the open unemployment rate in West Sumatra Province is the truncated spline regression using three knot points with a GCV value of 0.061762. Variables that have a significant effect are population, labor force participation rate, average length of schooling and dependency ratio with a coefficient of determination of 99.97%.