Early Marriage Factors Indonesian Using Spatial Regression Analysis

Abstract

Marriage is a sacred union recognized socially and religiously to form a family, as regulated by Law No. 16 of 2019. The percentage of early marriages in Indonesia continues to rise, reaching 21.5% in 2022, placing Indonesia 8th in the world according to UNICEF 2023 data. The increase in early marriages has significant impacts on maternal and child health and often leads to high divorce rates, with 516,334 cases in 2022. The aim of this research is to provide information and knowledge for students about early marriage and spatial regression. The main factors influencing early marriages are low education levels, economic difficulties, and environmental factors. Research shows that early marriages are highest in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, with spatial effects influencing the percentage of early marriages between regions.Spatial regression analysis, such as the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model, is used to examine the interactions between regions affecting early marriage. Spatial autocorrelation tests and spatial dependency effects show a spatial dependency effect, making the SAR model with queen contiguity weights the most suitable. The resulting model is considered quite good considering the R-squared value of 40.97%. The best-formed model shows that the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) of youth is a significant variable that greatly impacts the percentage of early marriages. Therefore, the central and provincial governments are expected to pay more attention to the open youth unemployment factor to control and reduce the rate of early marriages in Indonesia.