Comparison of the Chen and Sinsgh’s Fuzzy Time Series Methods in Forecasting Farmer Exchange Rates in Indonesia

Abstract

Chen and Singh's Fuzzy Time Series Model is a forecasting method that uses the basi  fuzzy logic in the process. The differences in the models are in the fuzzy logic relations. Chen's model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups. Meanwhile, the Singh model uses only Fuzzy Logical Relationships in the forecasting process. To find out the best model between the two models, forecasting the Farmer's Exchange Rate is carried out. Farmers' exchange rates are the option for observers of agricultural development in assessing the level of welfare of farmers in Indonesia. With changes in farmer exchange rates every month, it is necessary to forecast data in order to obtain an overview for the following month. Research used is applied research where the initial step is to study and analyze the theories related to our research, then colect the necessary data. The data used is data secondary data obtained online from the official website of the Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS). the forecasting results of the two models were compared using MAPE. The results of the comparison of the accuracy of the prediction accuracy of Chen and Singh's fuzzy time series models on farmers' exchange rates obtained Chen's MAPE fuzzy time series values ​​of 0.679% and Singh's fuzzy time series models of 0.354%. This means that the best forecasting model for farmer exchange rates in Indonesia is the Singh model.