Comparison of Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain and Fuzzy Time Series Cheng to Predict Inflation in Indonesia

Abstract

Inflation is one of the main microeconomic problems which is a very important economic indicator. Unstable inflation has a negative impact on people’s welfare, thus controlling inflation is important thing for a country. Forecasting is needed to monitor future movements in the inflation rate. In this study, the Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain and fuzzy time series Cheng methods will be compared in forecasting inflation. The advantage of the fuzzy time series method is that it does not have any special assumptions thet must be met. The purpose of this study is to determine the results of forecasting based on the results of the comparison of the two methods. The result of the comparison of the two methods based on the MAPE value is that fuzzy time series Markov Chain has the smallest value of 6,97%. The result of inflation forecasting for the next 5 periods using the fuzzy time series Markov Chain method is 5,42; 5,71; 5,95; 5,82 and 6,10.