Forecasting Smallholder Oil Palm Yield in Riau Province through the SARIMA Approach

Abstract

Oil palm stands as one of Indonesia’s major agricultural sectors that plays a vital role in regional economic growth, particularly within Riau Province. However, its production often fluctuates due to seasonal and environmental factors, making accurate forecasting essential for planning and policy formulation. This study aims to forecast smallholder oil palm production in Riau Province through the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Approach. The data consist of monthly oil palm production from January 2006 to December 2023 obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Riau Province. The modeling process includes identifying the model structure, estimating parameters, performing diagnostic checks, and evaluating forecasting accuracy using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The best model selected was SARIMA (2,0,0)(0,1,1)[12] with an AIC value of 4980.12 and a MAPE of 11.27%, indicating a good level of accuracy. The model effectively captured both seasonal and long-term trend patterns in production. The forecast results suggest that peak production typically occurs in August–September, while the lowest occurs in February–March. The study concludes that the SARIMA model provides a robust statistical framework for predicting oil palm production and can be applied as a decision-support tool in agricultural and economic planning for the province