Forecasting the Consumer Price Index of Padang City in 2024 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method.pdf

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which changes, is influenced by fluctuations in the prices of goods and services in Padang City every year. This is triggered by various factors that are of primary concern to the government. This study uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to forecast CPI in 2024 by relying on monthly data on the Padang City CPI for the period 2020 to 2023 obtained from BPS. This analysis identifies the ARIMA model (0,2,1) as the best and most optimal model based on the AIC and BIC values, does not show any autocorrelation, and is normally distributed. The forecasting model used shows a smooth and stable increase in the CPI in the period from January to December 2024. This model provides a positive signal for people's purchasing power and economic stability in Padang City in 2024. The results obtained are expected to be used as a strategic tool for preparing future goods and services price planning with more precision.