Comparison of Double Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing (Brown) Methods for Open Unemployment Rate in Padang Panjang Municipality

Authors

  • Nufhika Fishuri Universitas Negeri Padang
  • Fadhilah Fitri Universitas Negeri Padang
  • Dony Permana Universitas Negeri Padang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/366

Keywords:

Open Unemployment Rate, Forecast

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) is the percentage of unemployed people in the total labor force. The population included in the labor force is the population aged 15 years and over who has a job but is temporarily not working. Unemployment occurs because of a mismatch between the demand for employment and the qualifications of job seekers. Many job vacancies require graduates with a diploma or degree, so unemployment is one of the problems faced by Padang Panjang City. To overcome TPT in Padang Panjang City, one of the needs is to do forecasting to see how the TPT rate will occur in the coming year. This research uses a forecasting method by comparing the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) forecasting values of the Unemployment Rate in Padang Panjang City from 2006 to 2023. This forecasting is done to provide insight into the future condition of the workforce in Padang Panjang City. The results of the forecasting indicate that in 2024, there will be an increase of 0.42%, and for the next 2 years, there will be a decrease

Published

2025-05-31

How to Cite

Fishuri, N., Fadhilah Fitri, & Dony Permana. (2025). Comparison of Double Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing (Brown) Methods for Open Unemployment Rate in Padang Panjang Municipality. UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 3(2), 220–225. https://doi.org/10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/366

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