Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Method for Study Timeliness of the 2017 FMIPA UNP Student

Abstract

The punctuality of study is the time period to complete an education, for undergraduate students is 4 years. One of the quality’s determining of higher education is students’ ability to complete their education on time. The purpose of this study is to see the best modeling results and the accuracy of the punctuality of study of class 2017 FMIPA UNP undergraduate students using MARS. MARS is a method of multivariate nonparametric regression between response variables and predictor variables. The type of research used is applied research. The predictor variables used in this study are Grade Point Average (GPA), gender, university entrance, major, school origin status and place of origin. While the response variable is punctuality of learning time. The results of trial and error showed that the best model was obtained from a combination (BF = 18, MI = 3 and MO = 2), with a minimum GCV value of 0.23182 and R² value of 0.10045. From the model, it can be seen that the factors that significantly affect punctuality of learning time for FMIPA UNP students class 2017 are the X₄ (majors) with an importance level of 100%, the X₁ (GPA) with an importance level of 96.61%, X₃ (university entrance) and the X₅ (school origin status) with an importance level of 16.78 %. The classification accuracy on the 2017 student study timeliness is 64% based on graduating on time and not on time, with a classification error rate of 36%.