Forecast Accuracy Comparison Between Holt’s Method and the Box-Jenkins Approach: The Case of Madiun City Labor Force Participation Rate

Abstrak

Pacitan district was ranked first with the highest Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in Eastern Java Province. Meanwhile, Madiun city which is one of the largest cities in East Java Province, is ranked only 34 out of 39 cities in 2023. It is a matter of concern to the Madiun city government, especially the employment service, to deal with this problem. So that when the productive age to work can work. The percentage is issued annually by the provincial  Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) or the city or district. LFPR is a timeseries data, so to predict the percentage of LFPR in the next year can use the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and ARIMA Box-Jenkins methods. On this study obtained that ARIMA (1,0,1) was better at predicting Madiun city LFPR than other methods. Madiun's forecast LFPR result is 67,19% in 2024, 67,20% in 2025 and 67,21% in 2026. MSE value is 14,48; RMSE is 3,80 and MAPE value is 4,75%.