Factors Affecting Turnover Intention: A Survival Analysis Approach with the Stratified Cox Model

Abstrak

Employee turnover remains a critical management challenge in Indonesia. This research investigates the predictors of turnover intention—age, gender, profession, and transportation mode—using a survival analysis approach. Utilizing a real-world dataset of 1,129 observations, initial diagnostics indicated that the 'profession' variable violated the proportional hazard (PH) assumption (p < 0.05), necessitating a Stratified Cox Proportional Hazard model. We developed and compared two model configurations—with and without interaction terms—using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). While the non-interaction model proved most optimal for overall prediction (AIC: 5124.104), the interaction model revealed nuanced dynamics across professional strata. Key findings indicate that age generally increases turnover risk by 6.3% per year (HR: 1.063), and walking to work provides a protective effect, reducing risk by 13.6% (HR: 0.864) compared to bus usage. However, professional context significantly modulates these effects: in the 'Manage' stratum, age serves as a stabilizer (HR: 0.822), whereas male teachers face a risk 200.8% higher than their female counterparts (HR: 3.008). Furthermore, car usage in the 'Consult' stratum leads to a dramatic 423.5% increase in turnover risk (HR: 5.235). These results underscore the necessity of strata-specific retention strategies that prioritize workplace accessibility and demographic inclusivity. This study provides a robust data-driven framework for organizations to maintain workforce stability amidst the evolving labor landscape in Indonesia.